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Thread: Eye on two tropical waves entering the Gulf of Mexico. Localized heavy rain risk to the Gulf Coast.

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    Eye on two tropical waves entering the Gulf of Mexico. Localized heavy rain risk to the Gulf Coast.

    National Hurricane Center is now monitoring two areas of disturbed weather heading to the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rain risk & unsettled weather pattern looks to head our way.

    Tropical Wave #1 ? in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will help increase rain chances Friday-Sunday. Low 20% chance of development as system parallels Louisiana?s coastline. Not a weekend washout, but a good idea to have an indoor backup plan.

    Tropical Wave #2 ? National Hurricane Center has increased odds of development to a medium 40% chance with an area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas forecast to track into the Gulf. Sunday-Monday. Development into a depression/tropical storm possible.

    It?s the heart of the hurricane season, and forecast models have not handled system?s well this year. So, stay prepared. Be prepared for an increase in rainfall chances at a minimum.

    Regardless of whether either of these systems develop into bonafide tropical systems, an unsettled weather pattern appears likely Friday-next Tuesday/Wednesday. Periods of localized heavy rainfall will be possible. Expecting 2-5″ of rain over the next 5-7 days across south Louisiana, with localized higher amounts. Stay tuned!

    Elsewhere in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm #Paulette heading towards Bermuda.

    Tropical Storm #Rene heading out to sea. Neither pose a threat to the Gulf.

    In the far east Atlantic, the next potential trouble maker is a wave currently rolling off Africa with a 90% chance of development over the next 3-5 days. This system is further south than Rene/Paulette, and it could pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles/Caribbean in 6-7 days. This will be one to watch down the road, but it?s still WAY too far out to speculate on where this system will go.

    Next names on the list are #Sally, #Teddy, #Vickie, and #Wilfred.

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    Tropical Storm Sally formed Saturday off south Florida, becoming the earliest 18th-named storm on record in an Atlantic hurricane season as it enters the Gulf of Mexico amid signs of strengthening further.

    In the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. forecast, meteorologists said a hurricane watch is in effect for metropolitan New Orleans. The watch extends from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida line, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas in Louisiana and greater New Orleans.

    Forecasters said a life-threatening storm surge is possible along parts of the Gulf Coast beginning Monday.

    Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm, and officials in New Orleans issued a mandatory evacuation order for areas outside of levee protection, including Venetian Isles, Lake Catherine, and Irish Bayou. The evacuation order was set to go into effect at 6 p.m. Sunday.

    Sally emerged from a tropical depression swirling off south Florida, headed Saturday into warm Gulf waters. It was expected to become a hurricane by late Monday that could threaten a wide swath of the northern Gulf coast early in the week. It becomes the earliest 18th named storm in a busy tropical season, beating Stan, which formed on Oct. 2, 2006.

    On Saturday afternoon, gusty winds and heavy rain swept through South Florida due to Sally.

    The National Hurricane Center said Sally would dump heavy rain around the Florida Keys and the southern and western parts of the state. Maximum sustained winds were clocked at 40 mph (65 kph) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the coming days.

    An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was scheduled to investigate the system late Saturday.

    “Since the system will be traversing very warm waters and through a moist air mass with moderate vertical shear for the next few days, steady strengthening is anticipated,” forecasters wrote in an earlier advisory.

    Sally was located 30 miles (45 kilometers) south-southeast of Naples on Saturday afternoon, according to the hurricane center. The system was moving to the west at 7 mph (11 kph). A tropical storm watch has been extended westward from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Alabama/Florida Border.

    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne in Louisiana — and Mobile Bay, Alabama.

    The storm is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 centimeters) of rain to parts of Florida, with isolated totals up to 6 inches (15 centimeters). Meteorologists warn of an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds from southeastern Louisiana to the Alabama coast.

    Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Paulette had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph) and was 460 miles (745 kilometers) southeast of Bermuda, where a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect. Forecasters said Paulette would become a hurricane later Saturday and drop up to 6 inches (15 centimeters) of rain on the territory through Monday, adding that it is expected to be a “dangerous hurricane” when it is near Bermuda on Sunday night and Monday.

    Tropical Storm Rene weakened in recent hours and was reclassified as a tropical depression. It had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph) and was about 1,200 miles (1,935 kilometers) east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. Forecasters said Rene wasn’t expected to strengthen and did not pose any threat to land.

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    Senior Member JohnLanders's Avatar
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    Hurricane Sally reaches shore.

    This year's hurricane season is on pace to be the most active of all time, so it's no wonder that the tropics remain very busy.

    The National Hurricane Center now sees four named storms and seven active systems in the Atlantic storm basin.

    Hurricane Sally made landfall around Gulf Shores, Alabama on Wednesday at approximately 6 a.m. Sally strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane overnight. As of 6 a.m., Sally's winds are up to 105 mph, bringing hurricane-force winds onshore to the Florida panhandle and Alabama.

    The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Emergency in areas from Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Several Tornado Warnings were also issued.

    The strength of the storm isn't the main concern. Sally is only moving at 3 miles per hour. That slow movement means it is going to drop an incredible amount of rain for an extended period of time. Historic and life-threatening flooding is likely.

    Couple that with any significant wind speed, and you have a recipe for major damage.

    ABC News' Rob Marciano is in Pensacola, Fla. where they're getting hammered with rain. The National Hurricane Center warns Sally could bring "historic life-threatening flash flooding through Wednesday."

    Sally is expected to bring extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge. Storm surge warnings have been issued from Port Fourchon in Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

    Sally is the earliest "S" storm in recorded history.

    Sally is just one of four named storms under observation right now. Paulette, Teddy, and Vicky are the others.

    Hurricane Teddy is now a Category 2 hurricane. It is also projected to strengthen into a Category 3 storm Thursday and Category 4 by Friday. The good news is, Teddy is expected to stay out to sea.

    Tropical Storm Vicky formed Monday west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is not expected to cause a serious impact and will be short-lived.

    Out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Paulette is moving northeast. The eye of Paulette moved over Bermuda on Monday morning.

    After hitting Bermuda, the storm is expected to turn north and stay away from the United States. Swells from Paulette are expected to impact parts of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda and the southeastern United States.

    A tropical wave off Africa's west coast has a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days. Another wave in the Gulf has a 20% chance of development in the same time period. A non-tropical wave over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean has a 20% chance of forming.

    The next storm to become a tropical storm will be named Wilfred, the final name before moving on to the Greek alphabet. Here's what happens if we run out of names.

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    Rivers swollen by Hurricane Sally’s rains threatened more misery for parts of the Florida Panhandle and south Alabama on Thursday, as the storm’s remnants continued to dump heavy rains inland that spread the threat of flooding to Georgia and the Carolinas.

    Coastal residents, meanwhile, looked to begin the recovery from a storm that turned streets into rivers, ripped roofs off buildings, knocked out power to hundreds of thousands and killed at least one person.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned residents and visitors in flooded areas that they would need to remain vigilant as water from the hurricane subsides, because heavy rains to the north were expected to cause flooding in Panhandle rivers in coming days.

    “So this is kind of the initial salvo, but there is going to be more that you’re going to have to contend with,” DeSantis said.

    At least one death was blamed on the hurricane. Orange Beach, Alabama, Mayor Tony Kennon told The Associated Press one person in the popular vacation spot died and another was missing as a result of the storm. He said he couldn’t immediately release details.

    Sally blew ashore near Gulf Shores, Alabama, on Wednesday morning as a major hurricane with 105 mph (165 kph) winds. It moved slowly, exacerbating the heavy rains’ effects. More than 2 feet (61 centimeters) fell near Naval Air Station Pensacola, and nearly 3 feet (1 meter) of water covered streets in downtown Pensacola, the National Weather Service reported.

    Some Pensacola streets looked like rivers with whitecaps at times. The waters swamped parked cars before receding.

    A replica of Christopher Columbus’ ship the Nina was missing from where it was docked at the Pensacola waterfront, police said. The ship was later seen run aground in downtown Pensacola, Pensacola News Journal reported.

    The storm was a nerve-racking experience for University of West Florida student Brooke Shelter. She was wide awake Wednesday morning as strong winds and rainfall battered her home, marking her first experience with a hurricane. “The damage around my home is pretty minor, for which I am thankful for,” Shelter said. “However, it is so sad seeing how flooded downtown is.”

    Sally weakened to a tropical depression late Wednesday and picked up speed. The National Hurricane Center said its center would move Thursday out of southeast Alabama and across central Georgia, reaching South Carolina on Thursday night.

    On Thursday, the storm was dumping heavy rains over central and northern Georgia and western South Carolina. The National Weather Service said up to a 1 foot (30 centimeters) of rain could accumulate in parts of Georgia, where multiple flash food warnings were issued Thursday.

    Forecasters said South Carolina could see isolated totals of 10 inches (25 centimeters). Flooding was also possible in portions of North Carolina and Virginia through Friday.

    There was also a chance of tornadoes Thursday in southern Georgia and northern Florida.

    More than 500,000 homes and businesses were without electricity Thursday morning in Florida, Alabama and Georgia. News outlets reported some trees were toppled in Georgia. In Clayton County, fire officials warned residents to avoid areas where power lines had fallen.

    In Orange Beach, Kennon said the damage was worse than that from Hurricane Ivan, which hit 16 years to the day earlier. In a Facebook briefing, Kennon said distribution points would be established Thursday for water, ice and tarps.

    “It was an unbelievably freaky right turn of a storm that none of us ever expected,” Kennon said of Sally, which once appeared to have New Orleans in its sights.

    At least eight waterways in south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle were expected to hit major flood stage by Thursday. Some of the crests could break records, submerge bridges and flood some homes, the National Weather Service warned. Included in the warnings were the Styx and Fish rivers, Murder Creek and Big Escambia Creek. In Florida, major crests were expected on the Perdido, Blackwater, Shoal and Yellow rivers, forecasters said.

    Brewton, Alabama, a city of about 5,200, can expect moderate to major flooding, said meteorologist Steve Miller of the National Weather Service office in Mobile. Silverhill, a town of about 1,200, was threatened by the Fish River, which had crested, and Seminole, an Alabama village on the Florida state line, by the still rising Styx River, Miller said.

    As a hurricane, Sally tore loose a barge-mounted construction crane, which then smashed into the new Three Mile Bridge over Pensacola Bay, causing a section of the year-old span to collapse, authorities said. The storm also ripped away a large section of a fishing pier at Alabama’s Gulf State Park on the very day a ribbon-cutting had been scheduled following a $2.4 million renovation.

    Like the wildfires raging on the West Coast, the onslaught of hurricanes has focused attention on climate change, which scientists say is causing slower, rainier, more powerful and more destructive storms.

    Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center was tracking two other Atlantic storms. Hurricane Teddy strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane early Thursday with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 kph) and was forecast to become a major hurricane by Friday as it moves northwestward toward Bermuda.

    Tropical Storm Vicky was expected to dissipate in the coming days.

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    DALLAS (NEXSTAR) — Tropical Storm Teddy has now become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (160 kph), the National Hurricane Center said.

    Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Teddy is likely to become a major hurricane later Wednesday and could reach Category 4 strength on Thursday.

    As of now, the storm is on track to cause problems for Bermuda, which is forecast to be in the path of the powerful storm.

    “The biggest change to note that guidance has almost unanimously shifted westward at long range, seemingly due to a stronger central Atlantic ridge, and the NHC forecast is also moved in that direction. Unfortunately, this change does increase the threat to Bermuda, which was just hit by Hurricane Paulette, but remember the average track error at 5 days is roughly 200 miles,” forecasters with the National Weather Service wrote in a Wednesday update.

    Teddy is located about 820 miles (1,335 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (40 km) from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (281 km).

    Teddy poses no immediate threat to the United States, according to meteorologists.

    Meanwhile, Sally has weakened to a tropical storm, but the Gulf Coast region still faces issues from the slow-moving storm’s drenching rains and flooding.

    Photos: Hurricane Sally’s Aftermath
    The U.S. National Hurricane Center says the storm’s maximum sustained winds decreased Wednesday afternoon to near 70 mph (110 kph) with additional weakening expected as Sally moves inland.

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    SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) - This year’s hyperactive hurricane season continues to smash records, as the Atlantic Ocean experiences high activity. The Atlantic currently has five active tropical cyclones spinning simultaneously for only the second time in history.

    The five systems are Hurricane Sally, Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Storm Teddy, Tropical Storm Vicky, and Tropical Depression Rene.

    According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts, the last time the Atlantic had higher activity at the same time was in 1971 with six named storms: Edith, Fern, Ginger, Unnamed, Heidi and Irene.

    Last month, forecasters predicted that they may run out of traditional hurricane names due to high activity and see about twice as much storm activity as a normal year.

    Experts say hurricanes are getting stronger for several reasons, and nasty hurricanes that cause billions of dollars in damage are hitting more often.

    Paulette slams Bermuda

    Hurricane Paulette made a rare landfall in Bermuda Monday and strengthened into a Category 2 storm just hours after the British territory shuttered schools, government agencies and air and sea ports.

    The eye of the storm passed over the island as government officials warned of heavy flooding given that the hit coincided with an unusually high tide. Fewer than 10 hurricanes have made direct landfall on the tiny island in the middle of the Atlantic since the National Hurricane Center began tracking such disasters in the 1850s.

    As of Monday evening, Paulette was moving away from Bermuda to the north-northeast at 15 mph. It had maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, according to the center.

    Forecasters said the island would experience hurricane-force winds for roughly seven hours. Power was out across much of the island.

    A video filmed by Ted Anthony L Bagsican on Monday showed rain and wind lashing Hamilton, the capital of Bermuda.

    National Security Minister Renee Ming urged people to stay indoors and reminded the more than 70,000 people who live on the island to protect themselves given the COVID-19 pandemic.

    “You should be hunkering down to ride out the storm,” Ming said during a news conference on Sunday. “We’ll see you on the other side, safe.”

    Bobbi Singh, who has lived in Bermuda for eight years, told The Associated Press that while she has been through a few hurricanes, every storm brings concerns.

    “The biggest challenge was preparing in the midst of COVID-19,” she said. “It gave us more the think about when heading out to get supplies in crowded places.”

    Bermuda is a wealthy financial haven featuring mostly stone and concrete construction required to withstand winds of a strong Category 2 storm.

    Faith Bridges, the owner of Aunt Nea’s Inn, a hotel along the island’s northern tip, told The Associated Press by phone that she had finalized all preparations by Sunday and given her guests flashlights, warning them the power would go out. But she was not worried.

    “We obviously have to prepare, but we’re built for it,” she said.

    RELATED: Hurricane Alpha? With amped up season forecast, names may run out

    Ming said she expects the international airport will reopen by Tuesday afternoon as officials warned people to stay off the roads after the hurricane given the possibility of downed power lines.

    On Monday, the National Hurricane Center said the eye of of Paulette would gradually move away from Bermuda out into open water. However, hurricane and tropical storm conditions, storm surge and very heavy rainfall will continue through Monday.

    “Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” NHC wrote.

    Sally strengthens into hurricane

    Meanwhile, storm-weary Gulf Coast residents rushed to finish last-minute preparations Monday as Hurricane Sally chugged slowly through warm Gulf waters. Forecasters said the biggest threat is flooding, with as much as two feet of rain falling in some areas.

    As of Monday evening, Sally strengthened to a Category 2 storm packing winds of 100 mph.

    “The bottom line continues to be that Sally is expected to be a dangerous slow-moving hurricane near the coast of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama during the next 2-3 days," the NHC said early Monday.

    Jeremy Burke was lifting things off the floor in case of flooding in his Bay Books bookstore in the Old Town neighborhood of Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, a popular weekend getaway from New Orleans, about 60 miles to the west. The streets outside were emptying fast.

    “It’s turning into a ghost town,” he said. “Everybody’s biggest fear is the storm surge, and the worst possible scenario being that it just stalls out. That would be a dicey situation for everybody.”

    The National Hurricane Center said it was too early to tell exactly where Sally would come ashore, because it’s still not known when it would make a turn to the north.

    Sally was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane as flooding hit Dauphin Island, Alabama, on Monday. The NHC warned of coastal flooding and “dangerous” storm surge.

    Colby Perryman said this video shows flooding along Bienville Boulevard in Dauphin Island on Monday.

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